Publications

January 20, 2026
January 20, 2026
Block-Fitness Modeling of the Global Air Mobility Network
2026
arXiv
Giulia Fischetti, Anna Mancini, Giulio Cimini, Jessica T. Davis, Abby Leung, Alessandro Vespignani, Guido Caldarelli
November 28, 2025
November 28, 2025
Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications
2025
London
arXiv
Alberto Aleta, Andreia Sofia Teixeira, Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda, Andrea Baronchelli, Alain Barrat, János Kertész, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Oriol Artime, Michele Starnini, Giovanni Petri, Márton Karsai, Siddharth Patwardhan, Kathryn Coronges, Ann McCranie, Alessandro Vespignani, Yamir Moreno, Santo Fortunato
November 19, 2025
November 19, 2025
Epydemix: An open-source Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration
2025
PLOS Computational Biology
21(11): e1013735 (2025)
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Corrado Gioannini, Luca Rossi, Marco Ajelli, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
November 12, 2025
November 12, 2025
Mapping the Landscape of Individual-Based Models for Respiratory Pathogen Transmission in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Era (2020-2024): A Systematic Review
2025
Portland
SSRN
Shreeya Mhade, Utkarsh Bhosekar, Megan D. Hill, Shelly Sinclair, Snigdha Agrawal, Jessica Guerrini, Luling Zou, Anna Koebcke, Allisandra G. Kummer, Paulo C. Ventura, Sara Y. Del Valle, Matteo Chinazzi, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli
September 18, 2025
September 18, 2025
Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025
2025
JAMA Network Open
2025;8(9):e2532469
Sara L. Loo, Sung-mok Jung, Lucie Contamin, Emily Howerton, Samantha J. Bents, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Claire P. Smith, Erica C. Carcelén, Katie Yan, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Emily Przykucki, Clifton D. McKee, Koji Sato, Allison L. Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Clara Bay, Alessandro Vespignani, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Sean M. Moore, T. Alex Perkins, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Jiangzhuo Chen, Madhav Marathe, Michal Ben-Nun, James Turtle, Pete Riley, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, Shaun Truelove
June 12, 2025
June 12, 2025
Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data
2025
PNAS
122(24) (2025)
Nicolò Gozzi, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
April 23, 2025
April 23, 2025
Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA
2025
Parasites & Vectors
18, 152 (2025)
Ryan D. Harp, Karen M. Holcomb, Renata Retkute, et al.
February 12, 2025
February 12, 2025
Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks
2025
Nature Medicine
31, 788–796 (2025)
Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Antoine Allard, Alessandra Urbinati, Samuel V. Scarpino, Matteo Chinazzi, Alessandro Vespignani
January 14, 2025
January 14, 2025
Evaluation of stochastic trajectory-based epidemic models using the energy score
2025
medRxiv
(2025)
Clara Bay, Kunpeng Mu, Guillaume St-Onge, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Alessandro Vespignani
January 6, 2025
January 6, 2025
Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the WHO-Ebola modeling collaboration
2025
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
153 (2025)
Marco Ajelli, et al.
December 1, 2024
December 1, 2024
Real-time estimates of the emergence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: A modeling approach
2024
Epidemics
49, 100805 (2024)
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
November 14, 2024
November 14, 2024
A consensus statement on dual purpose pathogen surveillance systems: The always on approach
2024
PLOS Global Public Health
4(11): e0003762 (2024)
Helene-Mari van der Westhuizen, et al.
November 13, 2024
November 13, 2024
Human-AI coevolution
2024
Artificial Intelligence
339, 104244 (2025)
Dino Pedreschi, Luca Pappalardo, Emanuele Ferragina, Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Albert-László Barabási, Frank Dignum, Virginia Dignum, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Fosca Giannotti, János Kertész, Alistair Knott, Yannis Ioannidis, Paul Lukowicz, Andrea Passarella, Alex Sandy Pentland, John Shawe-Taylor, Alessandro Vespignani
September 10, 2024
September 10, 2024
Collaborative forecasting of influenza-like illness in Italy: the Influcast experience
2024
medRxiv
(2024)
Stefania Fiandrino, Andrea Bizzotto, Giorgio Guzzetta, Stefano Merler, Federico Baldo, Eugenio Valdano, Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Antonino Bella, Francesco Celino, Lorenzo Zino, Alessandro Rizzo, Yuhan Li, Nicola Perra, Corrado Gioannini, Paolo Milano, Daniela Paolotti, Marco Quaggiotto, Luca Rossi, Ivan Vismara, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicolò Gozzi
July 31, 2024
July 31, 2024
Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico
2024
PNAS Nexus
3, pgae306 (2024)
Brennan Klein, Harrison Hartle, Munik Shrestha, Ana Cecilia Zenteno, David Barros Sierra Cordera, José R Nicolás-Carlock, Ana I Bento, Benjamin M Althouse, Bernardo Gutierrez, Marina Escalera-Zamudio, Arturo Reyes-Sandoval, Oliver G Pybus, Alessandro Vespignani, José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez, Samuel V Scarpino, Moritz U G Kraemer
March 5, 2024
March 5, 2024
A multiscale modeling framework for Scenario Modeling: Characterizing the heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US
2024
Epidemics
47 (2024)
Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Kunpeng Mu, Nicolò Gozzi, Marco Ajelli, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
February 8, 2024
February 8, 2024
Ensemble : Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
2024
Epidemics
46, 2024, 100748 (2024)
Clara Bay, Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Matteo Chinazzi, Emily Howerton, Justin Lessler, Michael C. Runge, Katriona Shea, Shaun Truelove, Cecile Viboud, Alessandro Vespignani
February 6, 2024
February 6, 2024
Characterizing collective physical distancing in the U.S. during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic
2024
PLOS Digital Health
3(2), e0000430 (2024)
Brennan Klein, Timothy LaRock, Stefan McCabe, Leo Torres, Lisa Friedland, Maciej Kos, Filippo Privitera, Brennan Lake, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, John S. Brownstein, Richard Gonzalez, David Lazer, Tina Eliassi-Rad,Samuel V. Scarpino, Alessandro Vespignani, Matteo Chinazzi
January 1, 2024
January 1, 2024
November 20, 2023
November 20, 2023
November 16, 2023
November 16, 2023
The unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic
2023
Nature Human Behaviour
8, 264 (2024)
Marco Pangallo, Alberto Aleta, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Anton Pichler, David Martín-Corral, Matteo Chinazzi, François Lafond, Marco Ajelli, Esteban Moro, Yamir Moreno, Alessandro Vespignani & J. Doyne Farmer
August 4, 2023
August 4, 2023
Deep Bayesian Active Learning for Accelerating Stochastic Simulation
2023
ACM Digital Library
2559–2569 (2023)
Dongxia Wu, Ruijia Niu, Matteo Chinazzi, Alessandro Vespignani, Yi-An Ma, Rose Yu
June 26, 2023
June 26, 2023
Rapid review and meta-analysis of serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants
2023
BMC Infectious Diseases
23, 1-9 (2023)
Zachary J. Madewell, Yang Yang, Ira M. Longini, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani, and Natalie E. Dean
June 6, 2023
June 6, 2023
Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study
2023
Nature Communications
14, 3272 (2023)
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Natalie E. Dean, Ira M. Longini Jr, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Nicola Perra & Alessandro Vespignani
March 7, 2023
March 7, 2023
Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty
2023
PNAS
120(18), e2207537120 (2023)
Katriona Shea, et al.
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