Publications

July 10, 2026
July 10, 2026
Evaluation of stochastic trajectory-based epidemic models using the energy score
2026
Epidemics
Volume 56, September 2026, 100929
Clara Bay, Kunpeng Mu, Guillaume St-Onge, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Alessandro Vespignani
June 29, 2026
June 29, 2026
Adaptive multi-model ensembles for improved epidemic projections and decision support
2026
medRxiv
Stefania Fiandrino, Daniela Paolotti, Clara Bay, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Samantha J. Bents, Amanda C. Perofsky, James Turtle, Pete Riley, Michal Ben-Nun, Sean M. Moore, Alex Perkins, Guido Espana, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Kaiming Bi, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Przemyslaw Porebski, Aniruddha Adiga, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Fardad Haghpanah, Eili Klein, Sara L. Loo, Sung-mok Jung, Claire P. Smith, Lucie Contamin, Harry Hochheiser, Erica C. Carcelén, Emily Howerton, Katriona Shea, Katie Yan, Michael C. Runge, Cecile Viboud, Carl A. B. Pearson, Shaun Truelove, Justin Lessler, Rebecca K. Borchering, Matthew Biggerstaff, Nicolò Gozzi, Alessandro Vespignani
June 6, 2026
June 6, 2026
Mapping the landscape of individual-based models for respiratory pathogen transmission in the pandemic and post-pandemic era (2020–2024): A systematic review
2026
Epidemics
Volume 56, September 2026, 100924
Shreeya Mhade, Utkarsh Bhosekar, Megan D. Hill, Shelly Sinclair, Snigdha Agrawal, Jessica Guerrini, Luling Zou, Anna Koebcke, Allisandra G. Kummer, Paulo C. Ventura, Sara Y. Del Valle, Matteo Chinazzi, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli
June 1, 2026
June 1, 2026
Why epidemic risk at the 2026 World Cup may not be what you think
2026
medRxiv
Justin Lessler, Claire P. Smith, Praachi Das, Abagael L. Sykes, Alessandra Urbinati, Kelly Geith, Kimberly A. Powers, Jessica T. Davis, Stephanie C. Kern-Allely, George G. Vega Yon, Eric T. Lofgren, Carl A.B. Pearson, Alessandro Vespignani
May 20, 2026
May 20, 2026
Global approaches to infectious disease surveillance and modeling
2026
Nature Medicine
Mark P. Khurana, Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Bernardo Gutierrez, Ayush Chopra, Neil Scheidwasser, Harrison Bo Hua Zhu, Serina Y. Chang, David A. Duchêne, Cathal Mills, Rhys P. D. Inward, Benjamin Reddy, John Brittain, Abhishek Dasgupta, James Sheldon, George Githinji, John S. Brownstein, Mélodie Monod, Luca Ferretti, Sivan Bershan, Simon Tietze, Leo Ferres, Silvia Argimón, Timothy J. Dallman, Etien Koua, Oliver Ratmann, Simon Cauchemez, Lauren A. Meyers, Lili Su, Alessandro Vespignani, Paul Pronyk, Áine O’Toole, Andrew Rambaut, Nicholas J. Loman, Edward C. Holmes, Seth Flaxman, Nicola Mulder, Oliver W. Morgan, Houriiyah Tegally, Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez, Nigel Shadbolt, Christian Happi, Meera Chand, Sofonias K. Tessema, Placide Mbala-Kingebeni, Marc A. Suchard, Oliver G. Pybus, Samuel V. Scarpino, Samir Bhatt, Moritz U. G. Kraemer
April 21, 2026
April 21, 2026
Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications
2026
Journal of Complex Networks
Volume 14, Issue 2
Alberto Aleta, Andreia Sofia Teixeira, Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda, Andrea Baronchelli, Alain Barrat, János Kertész, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Oriol Artime, Michele Starnini, Giovanni Petri, Márton Karsai, Siddharth Patwardhan, Kathryn Coronges, Ann McCranie, Alessandro Vespignani, Yamir Moreno, Santo Fortunato
April 8, 2026
April 8, 2026
Assessing the Impact of Timing and Coverage of United States COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns: A Multi-Model Approach
2026
medRxiv
Anjalika Nande, Soren L. Larsen, James Turtle, Jessica T. Davis, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Bryan Lewis, Shi Chen, Lucie Contamin, Sung-mok Jung, Emily Howerton, Katriona Shea, Clara Bay, Michal Ben-Nun, Kaiming Bi, Anass Bouchnita, Jiangzhuo Chen, Matteo Chinazzi, Spencer J. Fox, Alison L. Hill, Harry Hochheiser, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Sara L. Loo, Madhav Marathe, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Carl A. B. Pearson, Przemyslaw Porebski, Emily Przykucki, Claire P. Smith, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Alessandro Vespignani, Timothy C. Willard, Katie Yan, Cecile Viboud, Justin Lessler, Shaun Truelove
April 2, 2026
April 2, 2026
The Retraction Epidemic in Science Across Publishers, Fields, and Countries
2026
arXiv
Sara Venturini, Alessandra Urbinati, Paola Gallo, Jessica T. Davis, Alessandro Vespignani
March 26, 2026
March 26, 2026
VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics
2026
PNAS
123 (13) e2523055123
Paulo Cesar Ventura, Yong Dam Jeong, Maria Litvinova, Allisandra G. Kummer, Shingo Iwami, Hongjie Yu, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Keisuke Ejima, Marco Ajelli
March 2, 2026
March 2, 2026
A multi-scale model to evaluate airport wastewater surveillance and ICU genomic monitoring for pandemic preparedness
2026
medRxiv
Benjamin K. Reddy, Joseph L.-H. Tsui, Kieran O. Drake, Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Cathal Mills, Jake Dunning, Isaac I. Bogoch, Samuel V. Scarpino, Samir Bhatt, Oliver G. Pybus, Andrew Rambaut, Matthew J. Wade, Thomas Ward, Meera Chand, Erik M. Volz, Alessandro Vespignani, Moritz U.G. Kraemer
February 3, 2026
February 3, 2026
Performance evaluation of RespiCast ensemble forecasts for primary care syndromic indicators of viral respiratory disease in Europe
2026
medRxiv
Nicolò Gozzi, Corrado Gioannini, Paolo Milano, Ivan Vismara, Luca Rossi, Marco Quaggiotto, Valeria Marras, Stefania Fiandrino, Mattia Mazzoli, Daniela Paolotti, Alessandro Vespignani, Francesco Celino, Lorenzo Zino, Alessandro Rizzo, Sasikiran Kandula, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Maikel Bosschaert, Steven Abrams, Niel Hens, Atte Aalto, Daniele Proverbio, Giulia Giordano, Jorge Goncalves, Katharine Sherratt, Rhys Earl, Kelsey E Shaw, T Alex Perkins, Yuhan Li, Nicola Perra, Fuminari Miura, Don Klinkenberg, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Ajibola Omokanye, Leah J Martin, Rene Niehus, Jose Canevari, Eva Bons
January 20, 2026
January 20, 2026
Block-Fitness Modeling of the Global Air Mobility Network
2026
arXiv
Giulia Fischetti, Anna Mancini, Giulio Cimini, Jessica T. Davis, Abby Leung, Alessandro Vespignani, Guido Caldarelli
November 28, 2025
November 28, 2025
Multilayer network science: theory, methods, and applications
2025
arXiv
Alberto Aleta, Andreia Sofia Teixeira, Guilherme Ferraz de Arruda, Andrea Baronchelli, Alain Barrat, János Kertész, Albert Díaz-Guilera, Oriol Artime, Michele Starnini, Giovanni Petri, Márton Karsai, Siddharth Patwardhan, Kathryn Coronges, Ann McCranie, Alessandro Vespignani, Yamir Moreno, Santo Fortunato
November 19, 2025
November 19, 2025
Epydemix: An open-source Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration
2025
PLOS Computational Biology
21(11): e1013735 (2025)
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Corrado Gioannini, Luca Rossi, Marco Ajelli, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
November 12, 2025
November 12, 2025
Mapping the Landscape of Individual-Based Models for Respiratory Pathogen Transmission in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Era (2020-2024): A Systematic Review
2025
SSRN
Shreeya Mhade, Utkarsh Bhosekar, Megan D. Hill, Shelly Sinclair, Snigdha Agrawal, Jessica Guerrini, Luling Zou, Anna Koebcke, Allisandra G. Kummer, Paulo C. Ventura, Sara Y. Del Valle, Matteo Chinazzi, Maria Litvinova, Alessandro Vespignani, Marco Ajelli
September 18, 2025
September 18, 2025
Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025
2025
JAMA Network Open
2025;8(9):e2532469
Sara L. Loo, Sung-mok Jung, Lucie Contamin, Emily Howerton, Samantha J. Bents, Harry Hochheiser, Michael C. Runge, Claire P. Smith, Erica C. Carcelén, Katie Yan, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Emily Przykucki, Clifton D. McKee, Koji Sato, Allison L. Hill, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Clara Bay, Alessandro Vespignani, Shi Chen, Rajib Paul, Daniel Janies, Jean-Claude Thill, Sean M. Moore, T. Alex Perkins, Ajitesh Srivastava, Majd Al Aawar, Kaiming Bi, Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Bryan Lewis, Jiangzhuo Chen, Madhav Marathe, Michal Ben-Nun, James Turtle, Pete Riley, Katriona Shea, Cécile Viboud, Justin Lessler, Shaun Truelove
June 12, 2025
June 12, 2025
Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data
2025
PNAS
122(24) (2025)
Nicolò Gozzi, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
April 23, 2025
April 23, 2025
Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA
2025
Parasites & Vectors
18, 152 (2025)
Ryan D. Harp, Karen M. Holcomb, Renata Retkute, et al.
February 12, 2025
February 12, 2025
Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks
2025
Nature Medicine
31, 788–796 (2025)
Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Antoine Allard, Alessandra Urbinati, Samuel V. Scarpino, Matteo Chinazzi, Alessandro Vespignani
January 14, 2025
January 14, 2025
Evaluation of stochastic trajectory-based epidemic models using the energy score
2025
medRxiv
(2025)
Clara Bay, Kunpeng Mu, Guillaume St-Onge, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Alessandro Vespignani
January 6, 2025
January 6, 2025
Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the WHO-Ebola modeling collaboration
2025
International Journal of Infectious Diseases
153 (2025)
Marco Ajelli, et al.
December 1, 2024
December 1, 2024
Real-time estimates of the emergence and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: A modeling approach
2024
Epidemics
49, 100805 (2024)
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Marco Ajelli, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicola Perra
November 14, 2024
November 14, 2024
A consensus statement on dual purpose pathogen surveillance systems: The always on approach
2024
PLOS Global Public Health
4(11): e0003762 (2024)
Helene-Mari van der Westhuizen, et al.
November 13, 2024
November 13, 2024
Human-AI coevolution
2024
Artificial Intelligence
339, 104244 (2025)
Dino Pedreschi, Luca Pappalardo, Emanuele Ferragina, Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Albert-László Barabási, Frank Dignum, Virginia Dignum, Tina Eliassi-Rad, Fosca Giannotti, János Kertész, Alistair Knott, Yannis Ioannidis, Paul Lukowicz, Andrea Passarella, Alex Sandy Pentland, John Shawe-Taylor, Alessandro Vespignani
September 10, 2024
September 10, 2024
Collaborative forecasting of influenza-like illness in Italy: the Influcast experience
2024
medRxiv
(2024)
Stefania Fiandrino, Andrea Bizzotto, Giorgio Guzzetta, Stefano Merler, Federico Baldo, Eugenio Valdano, Alberto Mateo Urdiales, Antonino Bella, Francesco Celino, Lorenzo Zino, Alessandro Rizzo, Yuhan Li, Nicola Perra, Corrado Gioannini, Paolo Milano, Daniela Paolotti, Marco Quaggiotto, Luca Rossi, Ivan Vismara, Alessandro Vespignani, Nicolò Gozzi
July 31, 2024
July 31, 2024
Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico
2024
PNAS Nexus
3, pgae306 (2024)
Brennan Klein, Harrison Hartle, Munik Shrestha, Ana Cecilia Zenteno, David Barros Sierra Cordera, José R Nicolás-Carlock, Ana I Bento, Benjamin M Althouse, Bernardo Gutierrez, Marina Escalera-Zamudio, Arturo Reyes-Sandoval, Oliver G Pybus, Alessandro Vespignani, José Alberto Díaz-Quiñonez, Samuel V Scarpino, Moritz U G Kraemer
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